Climate denial is at the core of the problem. Let’s take a look at a graph from way back in 1982 that put that denial in motion.

The Sierra Club and the Environmental Defense Fund recently released reports on the current state of U.S. renewable energy development, and the results showed a deeply disappointing trend of backsliding among our nation’s leading power utilities. Key metrics revealed a decline in projected clean energy siting projects, an increase in projections for gas-fired generating plants, and expanded plans to keep dirty coal plants running. All of which leads to a more rapidly heating planet.

Meanwhile, the United States had the largest increase of carbon emissions of all nations in 2025, accounting for 70% of the global increase.

Here in Michigan, we are seeing the trends play out. The federal government forced Consumers Energy to keep the old J.H. Campbell coal plant running beyond its planned shutdown deadline, spewing carbon, polluting the neighboring community, and costing Michigan rate payers over $600,000 every single day. And both Consumers and DTE are applying for permits to build a total of four CO2-releasing natural gas-burning plants to address rising energy demands, pushing our state CO2 emissions ever higher. These plans work directly against the carbon-free grid goals that Michigan leaders have committed to for years.

The increase in carbon emissions are in part a result of EPA Director Lee Zeldin’s proclamation that he is “driving a stake into the heart of the climate change religion,” as the agency helps propel a pro-fossil fuel agenda while doing its best to stop the renewable energy industry that has made such solid gains in Michigan and around the nation in recent years.

But the roots of the backsliding revealed in the reports actually go back much further than the current administration, and it’s essential we keep that history in mind, because this history is still shaping the denial of climate reality and the acceptance of ever more pollution and an ever-hotter planet. Please follow along as we time-travel back to tell a story that’s been told many times before, but can never be told often enough.

ABOVE: In 1982, EXXON scientists predicted with nearly miraculous accuracy how Earth’s temperature would rise as carbon concentrations increased. Today, 44 years after the graph was created, the graph remains astonishingly accurate, predicting a 1.4-degree C temperature increase at 427ppm atmospheric carbon concentration, which is what we have today.

Back 1982, Exxon scientists created a graph that predicted carbon increases and associated temperature rise. The graph foretold the climate future with astonishing accuracy. The graph was so powerful and convincing and dire that Exxon and other Big Oil companies feared people would demand a shift away from fossil fuels, and it would hurt their profits. They soon teamed up to hire the same PR firm that had so effectively sowed doubt and delayed action on cigarette controls by creating a massive disinformation campaign targeting the general public and elected officials.

The graph first received wide public distribution thanks to investigative journalists from Inside Climate News and the LA Times in 2015. But by then, the 33 years and billions of dollars in disinformation campaigns had done so much damage, and infrastructure to keep the oil flowing and burning was already in place. The PR campaigns sowed so much doubt that today, 44 years after the graph was created, we have millions of Americans condoning the United States going whole hog on fossil fuel at the very moment that climate scientists say we must act with tremendous investment and urgency to shut down CO2 emissions.

The well documented cover up of the graph’s information and resulting misinformation campaign laid the foundation for a major climate lawsuit which recently had arguments before the U.S. Supreme Court: Suncor Energy Inc v County Commissioners of Boulder County. A critical decision will come in 2027.

Here in Michigan, the Groundwork team witnesses the effects of the doubt campaign first hand in community meetings about siting new clean energy infrastructure. We’ve seen hundreds of people expressing a deep conviction that climate change is a hoax and no action is needed. These are good people tragically duped into advocating for policy that will damage the futures for their own families and communities.

So, how accurately did the graph foretell the climate future? To a tee.

The journal Science assessed the graph’s predictions back in 2020. The graph predicted 0.2℃ increase in temperature per decade. That is precisely what has happened. The graph predicted 415-420 ppm CO2 concentration by 2020—the concentration was 415 ppm. The graph predicted 1.0℃ increase in temperature by 2020, and the increase was 1.1℃. The graph predicted that when atmospheric concentrations of CO2 reached 427 ppm, our temperature would increase by 1.3-1.4℃. That’s exactly where we are today, 44 years after Exxon made the graph.

If you stop to consider the complexity of the atmosphere, the complexity of evolving economies and industry worldwide, and the state of computing power in 1982, we can say Exxon’s graph is miraculous in the accuracy of its predictions.

But, as breathtakingly accurate as the graph’s 44 years of predictions have been, what’s more important for us today is what Exxon’s graph predicts from here on out. The graph predicts (again, remarkably accurate so far) that we are soon to exceed the important temperature threshold of a 1.5℃ increase over pre-industrial levels. And in fact, scientists recently affirmed that prediction by saying that we will exceed that threshold at least for a while during 2026.

Here’s just one result of a 1.5℃ temperature rise: 90% of warm water coral reefs are predicted to perish within 24 years if that temperature increase is sustained. (Google “Why is a 1.5-degree temperature rise bad for Earth” to learn of other impacts.) For the Midwest, above 1.5 degree C means more intense rains and flooding, more and bigger forest fires, more expensive disaster response, and lower crop yields.

So, a few requests for today.

Share this email with friends and please don’t ever forget this graph. Lodge it in your mind. Help truth shape the story and inspire your actions. Never forget that Big Oil knew the truth of global warming 44 years ago, and that they know it today. While Big Oil continues to sow doubt among our people about global warming, there is no doubt in their own minds about the cause and effect of our heating planet. The Exxon scientists and the graph they produced in 1982 couldn’t have been more clear.

Each passing year affirms the accuracy of the Exxon graph’s predictions.

Please work hard to contact officials, speak out at public meetings, support renewable energy siting in your community, and organize support to swing the pendulum back toward responsible and sane energy policy. And as utilities produce their resource plans and develop siting plans for gas plants, stay engaged and comment. We must clean our air, improve our health, and help keep our planet livable, but continued and careless fossil fuel investments will do the opposite.

And please know that at Groundwork, we remain passionately committed to a science-based approach to climate policy and to pushing hard to speed the clean energy transition. We will continue to work hard to advance important policies in the next year like community solar and balcony solar, and to push for ramped up siting of the large-scale clean energy projects that the climate crisis demands. Clean energy is effective and affordable and becomes more so with each passing year.

Thank you for all you do to advance a sustainable and resilient clean energy future that’s best for people, and all the flora and fauna on Earth.

Never forget what the Exxon graph foretold 44 years ago and what it predicts for our future. Share this graph.

Jeff Smith is Groundwork’s Communications Director.
jeff.smith@groundworkcenter.org