Thanks for joining us for this Q&A! As the rail study reaches its midpoint, we wanted to take a step back and hear directly from the consultant team about what they’ve been working on and what they’re learning. Let’s dive in.—Carolyn Ulstad

Carolyn: Did any of the passenger rail routes you studied around the U.S. stand out as a strong model for our North+South service? What made routes good for comparison, and how can we apply those insights here?

Heather: We found three passenger rail services that offer great models for Michigan’s North + South Rail Project:

• Northern Lights Express (NLX) – a planned 152-mile line connecting Minneapolis to Duluth, Minnesota.
• Amtrak Downeaster – Running from Boston to Maine.
• Illinois Zephyr/Carl Sandburg – Linking Chicago to Quincy, lIlinois.

What we can learn from them:

• Northern Lights Express, showed that being “shovel-ready” and having strong state-level funding, helped push the project forward. NLX also showed that connecting passengers to other transportation modes (like local buses) is crucial to ridership, reinforcing the need for seamless first- and last-mile connections for the Michigan project.
• The Amtrak Downeaster has benefited from strong political support and proactive coordination with local communities. Its success in boosting tourism and downtown development (especially in small towns) shows how rail investment can drive local economic growth, a strategy Michigan could replicate along its corridor.
• The Illinois Zephyr/Carl Sandburg corridor highlights the value of connecting rural communities and regional institutions to major cities. The corridor has demonstrated the importance that higher education travel has on sustaining regional rail services, and that certainly applies to the North+South project.

Carolyn: How do state demographics and travel patterns help shape the route and ridership estimates? Did any of the data surprise you?

Heather: Analyzing state demographics and travel patterns helps us get a clearer picture of who might use the train. It’s a way to estimate potential ridership and shape a proposed route because it provides data-driven insight into who will use the service, when they will use it, and where they need to go. For example, areas with higher population density are more likely to generate strong ridership. Trips made for recreational purposes may be less sensitive to travel time and cost than those made by business travelers. Knowing where people are going by time of day, day of week, or even season, helps us figure out the best schedule to run trains and get the most riders onboard.

We were a bit surprised by how strong the travel market is within northern Lower Michigan. Specifically, there were more than expected longer distance (greater than 40 mile) intercity trips made between areas in the greater northern Lower Michigan region.

Carolyn: How do Michigan’s existing Amtrak services impact ridership modeling for this route? Also, transportation leaders are working to double the number of trains per day on the current Michigan routes; is that planned increase being accounted for in the ridership estimates?

Heather: As part of the ridership forecasting analysis, we will quantify directly how many riders will likely be transferring from existing Amtrak routes.

Changes in service frequencies on existing routes will be accounted for in the ridership forecasts for the corridor. How much ridership will increase due to doubling of service frequency on existing corridors will primarily depend on factors like whether there are timed transfers between routes (i.e., guaranteed connections with relatively short periods between trains at the transfer point). Other factors such as travel time, cost, and the perceived reliability of service along the existing and proposed routes will also affect the likelihood of travelers using rail that involves transferring between two rail services.

Prior analyses of U.S. intercity rail networks have identified the potential for inter-connected networks of rail routes, with convenient transfer connections, to out-perform isolated individual routes in terms of ridership. The most relevant study was undertaken by the Federal Railroad Administration for the Midwest network centered on Chicago, which included corridors in Michigan. [Reference: Midwest Regional Rail Plan – Final report]

ABOVE: Mural in Durand Union Station, Durand, Michigan, conveying how central to community passenger rail can again be for mid-Michigan towns. The Durand Union Station.

Carolyn: Over the course of your career, have you noticed a shift in public attitudes or government investment toward passenger rail in the U.S.? Are we seeing more momentum now than in the past or has it been pretty consistent?
 
Heather: Over the years, we’ve seen a steady interest in passenger rail across the country, and that interest feels like it’s gaining momentum in recent years.
 
People tend to support rail service, especially in places where they can actually use it. Even on routes with fewer riders, communities often recognize the value of having a train connection as an alternative mode of transportation. In Congress, support for intercity passenger rail has generally been strong on both sides of the aisle. With the creation of new federal programs like the Corridor ID initiative, we’re seeing more attention being paid to planning and improving rail service.
 
That said, turning plans into reality is still a challenge. Large-scale investments in new train routes can face a lot of hurdles, such as long approval processes for new land or environmental reviews and permitting. As a result, much of the recent focus has been on upgrading existing tracks and services rather than building entirely new lines from scratch.
 
At the state level, support for passenger rail varies. States like Michigan and Illinois have made real commitments to supporting rail, while others have been slower to get on board. Still, there’s a growing interest in rail service that serves multiple purposes: commuters, tourists, students, and more. As travel habits shift post-pandemic, the idea of flexible, all-day train service is becoming more appealing.
 
We’re also seeing that interest reflected in ridership. Amtrak just had its best year ever in 2024, with a record-breaking 32.8 million riders, surpassing its previous high from 2019. Ridership grew across the board.
 
One especially encouraging sign is the success of the Borealis train, a new state-supported service launched between St. Paul and Chicago. Operated through a partnership of Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Illinois, the Borealis welcomed more than 205,000 riders in just 11 months, far exceeding expectations in its first full year.
 
Carolyn: We heard that a few of you traveled the entire North+South railway route a while back, what was that like? Any good stories from that trip? 
 
Heather: The planning team was able to travel the North+South corridor in early May after a work session in Detroit. This trip allowed us to visit the communities of Ann Arbor, Durand, Owosso, Alma, Mt. Pleasant, Cadillac, and Traverse City. One of the team’s takeaways was how much the communities valued the history and heritage of rail service in their communities.
 
Our team especially appreciated how many of the communities have repurposed their historic train stations to new uses, including museums, restaurants/pubs, and so on. Many are marked by historic markers, indicating how valued the rail service or history is in their respective communities.
 
The trip really allowed us to capture the unique features of each of the communities and how the current and former rail service, both freight and passenger, shaped them.
 
Carolyn: I, too, have noticed the enduring presence of rail connection while traveling to each of the communities! Because they have had rail service before, I’ve gotten the sense that towns understand how important it can be for the future.
 
Many thanks to Heather and the WSP team for taking the time to share their insights and offer such thoughtful responses. We appreciate their willingness to help our readers better understand the study.

Carolyn Ulstad is Groundwork’s Transportation Manager. carolyn.ulstad@groundworkcenter.org